Corporate Blogging's in the Trough of Disillusionment According to Gartner's Hype Cycle

Sorry if that title is a bit of a tongue twister. Gartner today released its 2005 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. The research firm has pegged Corporate Blogging and RSS as being two years away from mainstream adoption. For now, both are tumbling into Gartner's Trough of Disillusionment as a result of too much media buzz (along with wikis and desktop search). If you believe Gartner, Corporate Blogging is already sooo... last year (2004).

 

They've got a point. The media rumble about Corporate Blogging is almost deafening by now. It's not a "new" story anymore. Which is not to say that blogging isn't still a "new" thing to many companies.

Gartner's hype cycle goes something like this: new technologies get overhyped in the beginning; then they go out of favor; eventually they're adopted by the mainstream but by that time they're no longer news.

The five stages have great names: Technology Trigger, Peak of Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment (think John Bunyan's Slough of Despond in Pilgrim's Progress), Slope of Enlightenment and Plateau of Productivity. Oh, and podcasting is on the upswing, according to Gartner. It's sliding up the Peak of Expectations. That sounds about right, doesn't it?

Here's a nifty PDF I found on Gartner's site which illustrates the 2005 hype cycle. Be sure to look at page 7 (the slide pictured above). It's a graph of the hype cycle plotted with every emerging technology (i.e. from corporate blogging to carbon nanotubes). Blogging, RSS, wikis, podcasting and desktop search are part of a larger trend that Gartner calls "key collaboration technologies designed to improve productivity and ultimately transform business practices."

Gartner writes:

"Corporate Blogging.  This involves the use of online personal journals by corporate employees, either individually or in a group, to further company goals.  It reached the peak of hype in 2004 although mainstream firms have not yet got involved.  Its impact will be on projecting corporate marketing messages primarily and secondarily in competitive intelligence, customer support and recruiting."

To clarify, the Trough of Disillusionment is not a bad place for a tech phenomenon to be.

As Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn put it (I found the quote in this press release):

"Don't invest in a technology just because it is being hyped or ignore a technology just because it is not living up to early over expectations," she said.  "If a technology fits with your overall business strategy you should be evaluating it from the outset, if you are unsure, wait until more research is available."

As I understand it, the hype cycle is measuring the buzz as well as the adoption rate. It doesn't necessarily correspond to the long-term utility - or success - of a phenomenon like Corporate Blogging. Only time will tell.

If you're a corporate blogging consultant the Trough of Disillusionment may sound like a downer. But hang in there... it takes lots of time and trial and error to slog up the Slope of Enlightenment. We can help point the way.

Read on if you want to see the 2005 hype cycle in table form.

Useful Links

ZDNet UK: Technology hype comes under scrutiny

SiliconRepublic.com: Gartner Cuts Through the IT Hype Cycle

Technorati tags: corporate blogging, BBS05, blogbusinesssummit

The table below was copied from Gartner's site. The site uses annoying pop-up windows as you navigate around, so I can't provide the URL. Corporate Blogging is 4.6.

                                                       

1.0		The Hype Cycle
2.0		On the Rise
		2.1   DNA Logic 2.2   Quantum Computing 2.3   Networked Collective Intelligence 2.4   Prediction Markets 2.5   4G 2.6   Corporate Semantic Web 2.7   Business Process Platforms 2.8   Augmented Reality 2.9   Text Mining 2.10   Podcasting 2.11   Carbon Nanotubes 2.12   Model-Driven Approaches
3.0		At the Peak
		3.1   Electronic Ink/Digital Paper 3.2   Inkjet Manufacturing 3.3   P2P VoIP 3.4   Biometric Identity Documents 3.5   Business Process Management Suites 3.6   Desktop Search
4.0		Sliding Into the Trough
		4.1   Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users 4.2   Micro Fuel Cells 4.3   Really Simple Syndication 4.4   Biometric User Identification 4.5   Grid Computing 4.6   Corporate Blogging 4.7   802.16-2004 WiMAX 4.8   Wikis 4.9   Organic Light-Emitting Devices 4.10   Mesh Networks — Sensor 4.11   Web-Services-Enabled Business Models 4.12   Trusted Computing Groups 4.13   Service-Oriented Architecture 4.14   Internet Micropayments 4.15   Tablet PCs 4.16   XBRL 4.17   Radio Frequency Identification (Passive) 4.18   Videoconferencing
5.0		Climbing the Slope
		5.1   Handwriting Recognition 5.2   Application Service Providers/Software-as-a-Service 5.3   Location-Aware Applications 5.4   Business Rule Engines 5.5   Voice Over Internet Protocol
6.0		Entering the Plateau
		6.1   Speech Recognition for Telephony and Call Centers 6.2   Text-to-Speech/Speech Synthesis 6.3   Internal Web Services
7.0		Appendix A: Previous Iteration of the Hype Cycle
8.0		Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels

 

Comments

[Rex Hammock]

While Gartner may market it as the "Hype Cycle," Paul Saffo has for years been explaining the concept of what he called "macro-myopia" back in the early 90s. The following is from an interview on PBS in 1995 ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/cyberspace/saffo.html )

"...macro-myopia (is) a pattern where our hopes and our expectations or our fears about the threatened impact of some new technology causes us to overestimate its short term impacts and reality always fails to meet those inflated expectations. And as a result our disappointment then leads us to turn around and underestimate the long term implications and I can guarantee you this time will be no different. The short term impact of this stuff will be less than the hype would suggest but the long term implications will be vastly larger than we can possibly imagine today."

[Debbie Weil]

Thanks for the great pointer, Rex. Spot on. It's fascinating to try and figure out the long-term implications of something like blogging.

[Matt]

Very interesting, Debbie. Thanks. I'm struck by how many things on the seventh slide I've never even heard of--or at least have no real understanding of what they are!